The expectation that and automation will replace a significant number of human workers in the next decade is undisputed. What kinds of jobs and how soon, however, is still being worked out.
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In 2015, a CEDA report suggested 40 per cent of jobs in Australia were highly “susceptible to computerisation” in the next 15 years. Last year consultancy AlphaBeta said three million Australian jobs (around a third of all jobs) were at risk by 2030. The issue is a global one. In 2013 the Oxford Martin School predicted that 47 per cent of jobs in the US were under threat. The percentage figure for developing nations was even higher.
“Ironically, the study used to predict occupations at risk. Even the occupation of predicting occupations at risk from automation has been partially automated,” says UNSW Professor of
But is
More knowledge, less fear
Walsh’s latest study Expert and Non-expert Opinion About Technological Unemployment, published this month in the International Journal of Automation and Computing, found that an individual’s prediction about the number of occupations at risk of automation and how soon they could be automated depends on how much they know about
At the beginning of last year Walsh and colleagues surveyed 200 authors from two leading
Each was asked about which from a choice of 70 jobs they thought most and least at risk from automation, and an estimate of when HLMI would arrive. The
When it came to the arrival of HLMI, the non-experts believed it would arrive sooner than the experts, by several decades. “For a 90 per cent probability of HLMI, the median prediction of the experts in
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